Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops
Tomorrow: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.
Against a calm day
25%
average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day
Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5
12-month record →Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
| AA 1178 American Flight history → | DCA 05:00 | MIA 07:56 | 9% | 2% | 1.8% | 93% |
| AA 2344 American Flight history → | DCA 05:06 | MIA 07:44 | 11% | 3% | 1.8% | 96% |
| AA 422 American Flight history → | DCA 08:20 | MIA 11:17 | 19% | 3% | 1.2% | 84% |
| AA 401 American Flight history → | DCA 09:35 | MIA 12:18 | 22% | 3% | 1.2% | 93%worse than usual |
| AA 1173 American Flight history → | DCA 09:55 | MIA 12:38 | 23% | 4% | 1.2% | 88%worse than usual |
| AA 1627 American Flight history → | DCA 11:55 | MIA 14:38 | 24% | 5% | 1.2% | 76% |
| DL 2576 Delta Flight history → | DCA 14:43 | MIA 17:33 | 24% | 6% | 0.7% | 67% |
| AA 2915 American Flight history → | DCA 13:44 | MIA 16:29 | 30% | 5% | 1.2% | 70% |
| AA 2664 American Flight history → | DCA 14:59 | MIA 17:48 | 30% | 5% | 1.2% | 75% |
| AA 3244 American Flight history → | DCA 18:55 | MIA 21:45 | 37% | 6% | 1.2% | 49% |
| AA 1233 American Flight history → | DCA 20:40 | MIA 23:28 | 37% | 6% | 1.2% | 63% |
| AA 1612 American Flight history → | DCA 17:40 | MIA 20:34 | 39% | 6% | 1.2% | 62% |
About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON