Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1612 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1612 · DCA → MIA

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.86667 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1612 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?