Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2863 at 15:00, 21%.

Safest bet today DL 2863 DCA 15:00 → MSP 16:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 5506 DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2863 Delta Flight history →	DCA 15:00	MSP 16:49	21%	5%	0.2%	61%
DL 1523 Delta	DCA 15:21	MSP 16:42	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	31%	6%	0.2%	74%
OH 5135 PSA	DCA 15:44	MSP 18:01	44%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:23	MSP 17:15	48%	15%	0.9%	33%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 20:32	MSP 22:25	49%	14%	0.9%	no record
AA 5506 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	MSP 21:54	56%	16%	1.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON