Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1523 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:42 PM ET, ETA 4:51 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

DL 1523 · DCA → MSP

took off 3:42 PM ET · expected to land 4:51 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1523 · DCA → MSP

Odds over time