Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 36–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5601 DCA 16:18 → ORF 17:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest AA 5662 DCA 20:06 → ORF 21:11 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:18	ORF 17:35	36%	14%	1.5%	56%
AA 5338 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:59	ORF 17:12	36%	14%	1.5%	61%
AA 5662 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORF 21:11	38%	15%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON