Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Washington); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 4353 at 22:09 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops today


AA 4353 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:09	PWM 23:59	17%	4%	0.5%	70%
AA 2978 American Flight history →	DCA 22:16	PWM 00:00	35%	11%	0.4%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 15:57 → ORD 17:29AA 3254	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:09 → PWM 00:43 +1AA 4403 · flown by Republic	8h 46m	95%	84%
American Details →	DCA 16:09 → ORD 16:56AA 1637	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → PWM 23:26AA 4504 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:00 → JFK 18:39DL 5713 · flown by Republic	3h 43m New York	JFK 22:22 → PWM 23:44DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	99%	74%
United Details →	DCA 17:47 → EWR 19:00UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Newark	EWR 21:59 → PWM 23:30UA 3627 · flown by Republic	5h 43m	87%	71%
United Details →	DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401	6h 11m	86%	69%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138	7h 14m	93%	64%
Southwest Details →	DCA 15:35 → MDW 16:45WN 4479	2h 10m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → PWM 22:15WN 4272	6h 40m	91%	64%
American Details →	DCA 17:13 → PHL 18:17AA 5248 · flown by PSA	3h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → PWM 23:51AA 652	6h 38m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → PWM 23:26AA 4504 · flown by Republic	6h 04m	73%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON