Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:24 pm at Washington); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5344 at 22:12, 51%.

Nonstops today


AA 5344 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:12	ROC 23:37	51%	14%	1.3%	63%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 16:58 → ORD 18:08AA 1189	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:17 → ROC 00:10 +1AA 3823 · flown by Envoy	7h 12m	97%	80%
American Details →	DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → ROC 23:56AA 4219 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	89%	72%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	3h 13m New York	LGA 22:12 → ROC 23:28DL 5417 · flown by Endeavor	5h 48m	94%	68%
United Details →	DCA 17:47 → EWR 19:00UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Newark	EWR 21:59 → ROC 23:18UA 3643 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	87%	65%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → ROC 22:54DL 1418	5h 25m	95%	64%
American Details →	DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207	2h 42m Boston	BOS 21:29 → ROC 23:06AA 4662 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	86%	63%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 22:10 → ROC 23:57AA 3155	6h 07m	93%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	5h 18m	73%	42%
Delta Details →	DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04DL 5752 · flown by Republic	1h 08m New York	LGA 22:12 → ROC 23:28DL 5417 · flown by Endeavor	3h 48m	58%	42%
American Details →	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 22:10 → ROC 23:57AA 3155	4h 50m	70%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON