Today: YX 4595 at 13:05 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 51–53%.

Safest bet today YX 4595 DCA 13:05 → SAV 15:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5387 DCA 16:55 → SAV 18:59 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 4595 Republic	DCA 13:05	SAV 15:14	31%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5260 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:11	SAV 09:40	35%	9%	1.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 5384 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	SAV 21:57	51%	17%	1.9%	56%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:55	SAV 18:59	53%	14%	0.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON