tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 pm at Washington); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:37, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2166 United DCA 18:18 SFO 20:42 24% 8% 0.2% no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history → DCA 18:59 SFO 21:56 32% 10% 0.4% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 2h 03m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 9h 22m 92% 69%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 06m 88% 68%
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:11 → JFK 19:47AA 4629 · flown by Republic 1h 39m New York JFK 21:26 → SFO 00:59 +1AA 177 9h 48m 87% 53%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447 1h 15m Chicago MDW 21:30 → SFO 00:15 +1WN 2893 8h 10m 77% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:37DL 1007 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 8h 00m 71% 54%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 48m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 7h 47m 54% 43%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447 1h 10m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SFO 23:50WN 4327 7h 45m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON