tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272 8h 54m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 06m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 10h 13m 96% 77%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 3h 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → SJC 00:04 +1WN 2419 10h 39m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:16 → PDX 20:04AS 9 1h 26m Portland PDX 21:30 → SJC 23:21AS 678 9h 05m 88% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:00 → MSP 16:49DL 2863 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087 8h 35m 83% 65%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → SJC 22:12AA 364 9h 59m 91% 65%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 1h 40m Los Angeles LAX 20:59 → SJC 22:13DL 3073 8h 28m 87% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41DL 786 49m Seattle SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest 9h 13m 62% 46%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:25 → AUS 19:50WN 2593 1h 05m Austin AUS 20:55 → SJC 22:44WN 424 8h 19m 55% 37%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 49m Seattle SEA 20:48 → SJC 22:57AS 403 8h 57m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON