tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:26 pm at Washington); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 14:59, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 14:59 → MIA 17:48AA 2664 3h 37m Miami MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy 9h 44m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:58 → ORD 18:07AA 1189 3h 58m Chicago ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 08m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 31m Chicago ORD 20:23 → TUL 22:14UA 2351 7h 44m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 2h 51m Houston IAH 20:05 → TUL 21:56UA 1927 8h 01m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → DCA 14:59 → LGA 16:33AA 4773 · flown by Republic 2h 56m New York LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 90% 68%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 30m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 8h 34m 95% 67%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30WN 1403 2h 25m Dallas DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477 6h 54m 96% 65%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 5h 49m 83% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 51m Miami MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 58% 50%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 51m Chicago ORD 20:23 → TUL 22:14UA 2351 5h 04m 60% 45%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:46AA 2889 5h 33m 52% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON