Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 am at Denver)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	AMA 16:43	25%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 5494 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	AMA 21:50	34%	9%	0.7%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:10 → DAL 08:05WN 1078	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 09:20 → AMA 10:46WN 1310	4h 36m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106	1h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → AMA 12:40WN 2096	5h 55m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	DEN 06:35 → AUS 09:40WN 1474	2h 05m Austin	AUS 11:45 → AMA 13:17WN 188	5h 42m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DEN 06:15 → DAL 09:10WN 1517	3h 35m Dallas	DAL 12:45 → AMA 14:11WN 1897	6h 56m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → AMA 14:56WN 186	5h 26m	100%	82%
American Details →	DEN 07:22 → DFW 10:29AA 1090	4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:29 → AMA 15:46AA 3387 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	97%	82%
American Details →	DEN 07:35 → DFW 10:41AA 852	3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:40 → AMA 16:07AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	96%	81%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DEN 17:50 → DAL 21:05WN 1521	50m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → AMA 23:15WN 1260	4h 25m	67%	49%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:29 → AMA 15:46AA 3387 · flown by Envoy	4h 08m	58%	49%
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → AMA 21:51AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	4h 28m	58%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON