Today: UA 447 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet today UA 447 DEN 11:30 → BHM 14:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1542 DEN 18:45 → BHM 22:23 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 447 United	DEN 11:30	BHM 14:41	22%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 375 Southwest	DEN 12:07	BHM 15:14	25%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 5815 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	BHM 21:55	31%	6%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 1981 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BHM 23:05	33%	6%	0.1%	24%
OO 4703 SkyWest	DEN 17:33	BHM 21:18	33%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 1542 Southwest	DEN 18:45	BHM 22:23	37%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON