Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 899 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 899 DEN 05:30 → BWI 10:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 1646 DEN 17:53 → BWI 23:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 899 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:30	BWI 10:55	9%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 1560 Southwest	DEN 05:00	BWI 10:24	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 1501 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 23:50	BWI 05:15	13%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 1498 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:00	BWI 12:25	14%	2%	0.2%	83%
WN 1509 Southwest	DEN 09:50	BWI 15:16	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4120 Southwest	DEN 00:30	BWI 05:57	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4434 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	BWI 17:15	19%	3%	0.5%	78%
WN 1563 Southwest	DEN 12:25	BWI 17:52	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2843 United	DEN 18:03	BWI 23:28	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1045 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	BWI 20:00	26%	5%	0.6%	66%
WN 1564 Southwest	DEN 18:38	BWI 00:04	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1143 Southwest	DEN 15:27	BWI 20:53	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1499 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:05	BWI 23:45	27%	6%	0.6%	39%
WN 1500 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	BWI 00:35	28%	6%	0.6%	28%
UA 1646 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	BWI 23:30	28%	5%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON