tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:03 am at Denver); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 15:40, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
F9 688 Frontier Flight history → DEN 11:25 DCA 16:59 30% 11% 0.5% 78%
F9 690 Frontier Flight history → DEN 16:28 DCA 21:59 33% 11% 0.5% 67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 2h 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 29m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 12:30 → MCI 15:05WN 351 3h 20m Kansas City MCI 18:25 → DCA 21:58WN 3546 7h 28m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 1h 40m Houston IAH 16:49 → DCA 20:55UA 235 7h 21m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:10 → JFK 18:25DL 532 2h 55m New York JFK 21:20 → DCA 22:59DL 5743 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 5h 48m 91% 72%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 42m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 12:55 → BNA 16:20WN 570 3h 55m Nashville BNA 20:15 → DCA 23:03WN 4843 8h 08m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603 1h 30m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 5h 54m 93% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233 47m Newark EWR 18:18 → DCA 19:58UA 4432 · flown by GoJet 6h 21m 61% 41%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:11 → MIA 18:19AA 3118 46m Miami MIA 19:05 → DCA 21:48AA 2648 7h 37m 56% 39%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:49 → PHL 18:35AA 1751 50m Philadelphia PHL 19:25 → DCA 20:41AA 5019 · flown by PSA 5h 52m 59% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON