Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1093 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1093 DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2217 DEN 18:40 → LAX 20:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 16% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1093 United Flight history →	DEN 06:04	LAX 07:34	5%	2%	0.5%	97%
UA 3760 United	DEN 06:41	LAX 08:10	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	10%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	11%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	11%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	12%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 4785 Southwest	DEN 07:35	LAX 09:01	14%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 4957 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:44	LAX 13:19	14%	5%	0.5%	79%
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	14%	5%	0.5%	91%
WN 1568 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	LAX 09:20	14%	1%	0.5%	82%
WN 1644 Southwest	DEN 09:16	LAX 10:41	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:07	LAX 08:38	15%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	15%	7%	0.5%	83%
F9 3155 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:00	LAX 08:30	16%	4%	0.7%	88%
F9 2797 Frontier	DEN 09:06	LAX 10:42	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2240 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	LAX 19:40	19%	7%	0.5%	77%
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 18:12	LAX 19:53	19%	8%	0.5%	53%
UA 531 United Flight history →	DEN 21:20	LAX 22:55	20%	7%	0.5%	77%
WN 955 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:05	LAX 14:35	22%	4%	0.5%	58%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	22%	6%	0.6%	67%
UA 1262 United Flight history →	DEN 19:43	LAX 21:18	23%	9%	0.5%	65%
WN 3110 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	LAX 22:45	31%	6%	0.5%	39%
F9 4345 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:39	LAX 00:11	31%	13%	0.6%	74%
WN 2217 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:40	LAX 20:10	33%	6%	0.5%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON