Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3463 at 06:11, 8%.

Safest bet that day WN 3463 DEN 06:11 → LGA 11:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4480 DEN 17:15 → LGA 23:00 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3463 Southwest	DEN 06:11	LGA 11:45	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4886 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:15	LGA 11:55	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:10	LGA 12:52	14%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	22%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	30%	6%	0.7%	80%
WN 2813 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:05	LGA 14:45	30%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	30%	8%	0.6%	60%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:20	LGA 23:13	30%	9%	0.7%	70%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	31%	13%	0.6%	67%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	LGA 17:24	33%	9%	0.6%	72%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	33%	10%	0.6%	71%
WN 4441 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:15	LGA 16:55	44%	8%	0.6%	51%
WN 4233 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:05	LGA 20:50	48%	15%	0.7%	32%
WN 4480 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:15	LGA 23:00	50%	12%	0.7%	25%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	55m Chicago	MDW 17:15 → LGA 20:20WN 556	5h 20m	80%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON