Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1418 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1418 DEN 09:41 → MIA 15:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1310 DEN 12:21 → MIA 18:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1418 United Flight history →	DEN 09:41	MIA 15:51	16%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 1292 American	DEN 00:04	MIA 06:03	20%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 1496 United Flight history →	DEN 10:09	MIA 16:16	20%	5%	0.6%	54%
AA 1737 American Flight history →	DEN 23:45	MIA 05:41	22%	4%	1.0%	61%
UA 1741 United Flight history →	DEN 15:53	MIA 21:59	28%	6%	0.6%	58%
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:54	MIA 00:59	30%	13%	0.7%	77%
AA 3118 American Flight history →	DEN 12:11	MIA 18:19	32%	6%	1.0%	77%
WN 3404 Southwest	DEN 12:50	MIA 18:42	33%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 445 United	DEN 16:07	MIA 22:12	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1310 American	DEN 12:21	MIA 18:10	36%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON