Today: WN 1705 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet today WN 1705 DEN 08:30 → OMA 11:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest F9 1874 DEN 16:40 → OMA 19:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1705 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:30	OMA 11:07	11%	1%	0.1%	68%
OO 510 SkyWest	DEN 07:59	OMA 10:40	12%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 5443 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	OMA 10:46	13%	2%	0.2%	97%
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:11	OMA 12:55	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 748 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	OMA 12:30	16%	2%	0.1%	81%
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	17%	5%	0.2%	84%
WN 1306 Southwest	DEN 10:35	OMA 13:12	21%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 1707 Southwest	DEN 16:35	OMA 19:12	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1658 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	OMA 17:35	22%	4%	0.4%	56%
OO 4802 SkyWest	DEN 15:37	OMA 18:18	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 5251 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:38	OMA 18:19	22%	8%	0.6%	74%
WN 4423 Southwest	DEN 19:05	OMA 21:42	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	31%	7%	0.5%	66%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	OMA 23:42	31%	6%	0.5%	68%
F9 1874 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:40	OMA 19:15	36%	9%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON