Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3174 DEN 17:05 → ORD 20:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	7%	2%	0.2%	89%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	DEN 07:48	ORD 11:29	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	ORD 11:43	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2315 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	ORD 11:23	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:16	ORD 11:00	11%	4%	0.4%	88%
AA 2851 American	DEN 06:44	ORD 10:14	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	DEN 09:38	ORD 13:11	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 1747 American Flight history →	DEN 09:09	ORD 12:57	15%	3%	0.9%	75%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 2649 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	ORD 00:44	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 1744 American Flight history →	DEN 12:34	ORD 16:31	19%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	DEN 12:23	ORD 15:57	20%	6%	0.9%	78%
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	22%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 2085 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	ORD 23:19	24%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	25%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 1734 American Flight history →	DEN 17:57	ORD 22:00	26%	6%	0.9%	54%
UA 2258 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ORD 22:49	26%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 1760 American Flight history →	DEN 14:34	ORD 18:29	28%	6%	1.0%	60%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	28%	8%	0.6%	58%
UA 352 United Flight history →	DEN 16:59	ORD 20:40	28%	8%	0.6%	59%
UA 1131 United Flight history →	DEN 16:46	ORD 20:16	30%	8%	0.6%	71%
AA 1277 American	DEN 14:35	ORD 18:13	30%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	ORD 21:39	30%	6%	0.6%	50%
UA 2272 United	DEN 18:05	ORD 21:36	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1317 American	DEN 18:08	ORD 21:40	33%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 3174 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:05	ORD 20:52	39%	12%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON