Today: UA 2082 at 11:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet today UA 2082 DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 1588 DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2082 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	RDM 12:53	20%	7%	0.2%	73%
UA 8182 United	DEN 11:22	RDM 13:03	20%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 1588 United Flight history →	DEN 19:29	RDM 21:05	33%	11%	0.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON