Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4298 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4298 DEN 08:34 → RNO 09:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 719 DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4298 Southwest	DEN 08:34	RNO 09:54	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2689 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	RNO 09:05	6%	1%	0.5%	82%
OO 5335 SkyWest	DEN 08:27	RNO 10:12	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	15%	5%	0.5%	87%
OO 4736 SkyWest	DEN 13:52	RNO 15:36	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4136 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:40	19%	6%	0.5%	58%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	22%	7%	0.5%	85%
WN 669 Southwest	DEN 17:03	RNO 18:23	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2852 United Flight history →	DEN 21:00	RNO 22:26	28%	8%	0.5%	63%
UA 719 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	RNO 20:50	30%	9%	0.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON