Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3120 at 09:47, 22%.

Safest bet today OO 3120 DEN 09:47 → SAN 11:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1703 DEN 18:55 → SAN 20:15 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 3120 SkyWest	DEN 09:47	SAN 11:17	22%	10%	0.5%	no record
AS 1618 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 11:32	SAN 13:05	25%	7%	0.6%	80%
F9 2711 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:30	SAN 00:04	27%	9%	1.0%	81%
AS 1342 Alaska	DEN 12:31	SAN 13:56	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	SAN 12:41	31%	10%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:22	SAN 15:56	33%	11%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	33%	12%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
F9 4989 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SAN 23:51	33%	8%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
AS 636 Alaska	DEN 18:59	SAN 20:23	35%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	37%	12%	0.3%	87%worse than usual
UA 1835 United Flight history →	DEN 21:00	SAN 22:25	39%	18%	0.5%	68%
UA 2395 United	DEN 21:04	SAN 22:43	39%	17%	0.5%	no record
WN 1771 Southwest	DEN 14:10	SAN 15:35	39%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 3503 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:55	SAN 14:15	39%	9%	0.3%	45%
WN 1755 Southwest	DEN 12:11	SAN 12:57	42%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 4160 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	SAN 18:20	42%	12%	0.3%	41%
WN 4263 Southwest	DEN 16:10	SAN 17:37	42%	10%	0.3%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAN 20:46	46%	20%	0.5%	65%worse than usual
AS 3020 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:59	SAN 21:40	50%	19%	0.7%	27%
WN 3408 Southwest	DEN 21:05	SAN 22:29	52%	16%	0.4%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	DEN 18:10	SAN 19:37	55%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 1703 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:55	SAN 20:15	56%	16%	0.4%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON