Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1093 DEN 13:47 → SFO 15:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2265 United	DEN 05:55	SFO 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1301 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	SFO 07:35	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	16%	6%	0.5%	48%
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	17%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 4303 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:35	SFO 10:11	18%	5%	0.6%	10%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	18%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DEN 12:25	SFO 14:09	19%	9%	0.5%	48%
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	19%	10%	0.5%	73%
WN 2386 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	SFO 09:25	19%	6%	0.6%	16%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	20%	8%	0.5%	76%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	23%	9%	0.5%	68%
UA 2123 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SFO 22:56	24%	6%	0.6%	60%
WN 1772 Southwest	DEN 11:45	SFO 13:26	25%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 1719 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SFO 13:20	25%	8%	0.5%	14%
F9 3439 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SFO 00:23	26%	10%	0.7%	70%
F9 1229 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:06	SFO 10:53	27%	8%	0.6%	66%
WN 4330 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:45	SFO 20:25	30%	9%	0.5%	17%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	DEN 19:34	SFO 21:20	30%	8%	0.6%	44%
F9 1093 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:47	SFO 15:35	34%	11%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON