Today: AA 3389 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–38%.

Safest bet today AA 3389 DFW 08:22 → AMA 09:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1536 DFW 22:41 → AMA 23:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3389 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:22	AMA 09:44	9%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:23	AMA 09:44	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:21	AMA 14:48	12%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:40	AMA 16:07	14%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:25	AMA 18:53	14%	4%	0.9%	80%
MQ 3686 Envoy	DFW 22:40	AMA 00:01	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3387 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:29	AMA 15:46	15%	3%	0.9%	74%
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:16	AMA 22:37	15%	4%	0.9%	67%
AA 3388 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:15	AMA 18:34	15%	4%	0.9%	86%
MQ 3337 Envoy	DFW 11:00	AMA 12:32	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:20	AMA 21:51	16%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 3510 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:05	AMA 21:27	16%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 3384 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:23	AMA 12:42	17%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 4933 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:30	AMA 22:59	27%	8%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 1536 American Flight history →	DFW 22:41	AMA 23:59	38%	11%	1.6%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON