tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:44 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Alaska via Portland, leaving 17:45, 71% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 395 American Flight history → DFW 18:40 ANC 22:39 35% 7% 0.3% 64%
AA 399 American Flight history → DFW 15:53 ANC 19:32 35% 9% 0.4% 73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49AS 646 1h 41m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:36 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 9h 51m 88% 71%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:50 → SFO 17:13UA 2413 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:46UA 1594 9h 56m 84% 64%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:15 → SEA 18:35DL 408 2h 45m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 10h 43m 100% 58%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322 3h 35m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363 11h 37m 100% 57%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 19:18 → ANC 23:59AA 1981 10h 22m 87% 53%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574 3h 20m Seattle SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560 11h 25m 100% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DFW 20:45 → SEA 23:05AS 550 54m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363 8h 55m 38% 21%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:55 → PHX 18:27AA 1648 51m Phoenix PHX 19:18 → ANC 23:59AA 1981 9h 04m 35% 21%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 18:03 → SEA 20:24AS 322 51m Seattle SEA 21:15 → ANC 23:55AS 771 8h 52m 37% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON