Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:55 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 4912 at 10:50 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet today AA 4912 DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 4911 DFW 18:46 → ASE 19:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4912 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 10:50	ASE 12:21	24%	9%	0.6%	82%
OO 6442 SkyWest	DFW 11:08	ASE 12:46	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 12:28	ASE 13:51	28%	11%	0.6%	63%
AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 18:52	ASE 20:17	33%	11%	0.9%	61%
OO 4911 SkyWest	DFW 18:46	ASE 19:57	35%	11%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON