Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 401 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 401 DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2496 DFW 16:16 → ATL 19:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 401 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	ATL 08:34	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 893 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:45	ATL 09:59	7%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 1627 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:10	ATL 11:28	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:06	ATL 13:25	8%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 3390 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:00	ATL 09:13	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
DL 2143 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:51	ATL 20:19	12%	3%	0.7%	69%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	DFW 09:24	ATL 12:45	13%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:32	ATL 21:59	13%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 820 American Flight history →	DFW 07:19	ATL 10:35	13%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 891 American Flight history →	DFW 07:19	ATL 10:29	14%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 1358 American Flight history →	DFW 09:34	ATL 12:46	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 1386 American Flight history →	DFW 10:58	ATL 14:10	19%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1356 American Flight history →	DFW 12:10	ATL 15:20	20%	8%	0.7%	52%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:31	ATL 16:42	24%	7%	0.7%	46%
F9 2494 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:12	ATL 11:32	24%	8%	0.8%	70%
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:00	ATL 13:27	26%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 1379 American Flight history →	DFW 16:02	ATL 19:13	27%	10%	0.7%	34%
F9 1270 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:19	ATL 09:41	27%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 2749 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	ATL 00:19	28%	9%	0.7%	55%
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 19:26	ATL 22:35	30%	10%	0.7%	56%
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:16	ATL 19:50	35%	16%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON