Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:35	ATW 12:09	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 4188 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:07	ATW 22:41	16%	3%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → ATW 10:45AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	97%	89%
American Details →	DFW 17:48 → ORD 20:07AA 1573	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → ATW 00:10 +1AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	56m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:24 → DTW 17:10DL 735	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 13m	96%	80%
United Details →	DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 15:35 → ATW 16:54UA 5633 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	100%	79%
American Details →	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	5h 34m	89%	78%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 14:19 → ATW 15:38AA 5516 · flown by PSA	8h 38m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746	2h 22m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 09:50 → CLT 13:31AA 1857	48m Charlotte	CLT 14:19 → ATW 15:38AA 5516 · flown by PSA	5h 48m	58%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON