Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3401 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 3401 DFW 07:00 → AUS 08:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1588 DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3401 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:00	AUS 08:04	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4992 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:41	AUS 08:52	13%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:55	AUS 15:00	15%	2%	0.7%	80%
AA 1167 American	DFW 07:34	AUS 08:47	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:16	AUS 16:21	16%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 3402 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AUS 18:24	19%	4%	0.7%	65%
AA 794 American Flight history →	DFW 08:18	AUS 09:23	19%	5%	1.2%	80%
AA 1070 American	DFW 10:58	AUS 12:12	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3054 American Flight history →	DFW 09:22	AUS 10:28	23%	7%	1.2%	74%
AA 1402 American Flight history →	DFW 10:50	AUS 11:55	25%	6%	1.2%	40%
AA 1413 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	AUS 10:42	25%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:04	AUS 19:16	33%	10%	0.9%	65%
AA 789 American Flight history →	DFW 19:00	AUS 20:03	37%	12%	1.3%	55%
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:35	AUS 22:39	37%	11%	1.6%	61%
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	38%	12%	1.3%	55%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	AUS 23:51	41%	11%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON