Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:07 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 4260 at 19:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops today


AA 4260 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:30	AVL 22:56	20%	5%	0.5%	82%
AA 2399 American	DFW 19:27	AVL 22:41	46%	14%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA	5h 21m	79%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:32 → ATL 21:59DL 374	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	4h 14m	54%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON