Today: AA 1529 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–37%.

Safest bet today AA 1529 DFW 09:06 → BOI 11:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1104 DFW 21:05 → BOI 23:21 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1529 American Flight history →	DFW 09:06	BOI 11:19	12%	5%	0.1%	80%
AA 1320 American	DFW 09:06	BOI 11:38	13%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 2019 American	DFW 11:15	BOI 13:40	16%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 1531 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	BOI 14:46	18%	7%	0.2%	54%
AA 1104 American Flight history →	DFW 21:05	BOI 23:21	37%	9%	1.2%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON