Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1048 DFW 16:04 → BOS 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:20	BOS 16:14	14%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	DFW 07:06	BOS 11:39	18%	4%	1.3%	81%
DL 462 Delta Flight history →	DFW 17:00	BOS 21:55	19%	7%	0.6%	43%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	BOS 13:37	20%	5%	1.3%	82%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 09:44	BOS 14:43	23%	6%	1.3%	67%
AA 1595 American Flight history →	DFW 10:22	BOS 15:10	23%	6%	1.3%	70%
AA 1577 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	BOS 16:55	26%	8%	1.2%	57%
AA 1602 American	DFW 12:20	BOS 16:53	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2224 American Flight history →	DFW 18:19	BOS 23:10	30%	10%	1.3%	40%
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	BOS 19:48	31%	12%	1.0%	55%
AA 1048 American Flight history →	DFW 16:04	BOS 20:50	32%	13%	1.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON