Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2747 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2747 DFW 07:01 → BWI 11:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2251 DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2747 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	BWI 11:08	12%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	BWI 10:57	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	DFW 10:51	BWI 14:56	16%	6%	0.7%	68%
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:53	BWI 11:55	21%	6%	0.7%	73%
F9 3788 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:25	BWI 13:40	24%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 3004 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	BWI 19:24	27%	9%	0.7%	57%
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	28%	9%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON