Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4078 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4078 DFW 08:50 → CHA 12:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 425 DFW 20:01 → CHA 22:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4078 Envoy	DFW 08:50	CHA 12:05	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3451 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:40	CHA 11:47	15%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 5471 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:35	CHA 19:42	28%	13%	0.9%	73%
AA 2121 American Flight history →	DFW 12:32	CHA 15:33	28%	13%	1.3%	43%
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:30	CHA 19:41	28%	14%	0.9%	55%
AA 2037 American	DFW 12:10	CHA 15:11	30%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 425 American Flight history →	DFW 20:01	CHA 22:59	37%	14%	1.3%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON