Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1434 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1434 DFW 05:02 → DCA 08:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2077 DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1434 American	DFW 05:02	DCA 08:53	14%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	16%	4%	1.6%	86%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	16%	5%	1.6%	85%
AA 1151 American	DFW 08:47	DCA 13:00	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2623 American	DFW 07:00	DCA 10:51	18%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DFW 09:57	DCA 13:59	21%	5%	1.6%	82%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	22%	6%	1.0%	70%
AA 1550 American	DFW 09:41	DCA 13:31	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 15:00	DCA 19:11	28%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	30%	9%	1.2%	62%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	31%	9%	0.9%	65%
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	33%	8%	1.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON