Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5640 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day OH 5640 DFW 07:15 → DSM 09:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1371 DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5640 PSA	DFW 07:15	DSM 09:18	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DSM 15:24	33%	10%	1.8%	60%
AA 2421 American Flight history →	DFW 14:08	DSM 16:00	33%	10%	1.8%	49%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	DFW 17:09	DSM 19:13	37%	14%	1.8%	56%
AA 1762 American Flight history →	DFW 16:35	DSM 18:33	39%	13%	1.3%	52%
AA 1371 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	DSM 23:58	39%	13%	2.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON