Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:48 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 3625 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–44%.

Safest bet today AA 3625 DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 5187 DFW 16:05 → ECP 18:17 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ECP 11:41	26%	7%	2.2%	77%
MQ 3415 Envoy	DFW 13:32	ECP 15:39	31%	7%	2.3%	no record
AA 3502 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:16	ECP 16:21	31%	9%	2.3%	56%
AA 5185 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:40	ECP 11:54	33%	11%	2.4%	80%worse than usual
OH 5105 PSA	DFW 12:22	ECP 14:34	35%	19%	3.4%	no record
OH 5303 PSA	DFW 19:18	ECP 21:23	38%	19%	3.0%	no record
OH 5652 PSA	DFW 16:12	ECP 18:19	39%	20%	5.0%	no record
AA 5187 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:05	ECP 18:17	44%	22%	5.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON