Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1847 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1847 DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 618 DFW 14:25 → EWR 19:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:29	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2215 United	DFW 05:50	EWR 10:03	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1219 United Flight history →	DFW 07:15	EWR 11:51	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:11	EWR 13:23	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2454 United Flight history →	DFW 10:32	EWR 15:07	17%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 06:53	EWR 11:08	18%	3%	1.2%	81%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	21%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 1439 United Flight history →	DFW 20:27	EWR 00:59	25%	8%	0.7%	68%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	27%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 402 United Flight history →	DFW 16:52	EWR 21:27	30%	11%	0.8%	52%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 11:47	EWR 16:20	33%	6%	1.2%	56%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	EWR 19:04	39%	10%	1.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON