Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4036 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4036 DFW 07:33 → HOU 08:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5465 DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:33	HOU 08:52	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
MQ 4127 Envoy	DFW 12:22	HOU 13:51	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 10:51	HOU 12:16	22%	10%	0.8%	83%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:25	HOU 09:48	22%	8%	0.9%	67%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	HOU 19:53	22%	4%	0.8%	67%
OO 6458 SkyWest	DFW 09:45	HOU 11:04	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 14:21	HOU 15:44	26%	11%	0.7%	72%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:56	HOU 18:19	28%	10%	0.8%	64%
AA 5465 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 22:38	HOU 23:56	28%	13%	1.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON