Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:48 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 6467 at 20:05, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 6467 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 20:05	IDA 22:11	24%	9%	0.2%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 18:12 → SLC 20:00DL 2812	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → IDA 22:32DL 2608	5h 20m	85%	73%
Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 20:13 → IDA 23:08AS 3422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	88%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	61%	53%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 00m Denver	DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON