Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:37 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: MQ 3399 at 19:10 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops today


MQ 3399 Envoy	DFW 19:10	ILM 23:06	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1841 American Flight history →	DFW 20:10	ILM 23:57	42%	11%	0.4%	42%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	5h 33m	100%	84%
American Details →	DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083	2h 18m Miami	MIA 21:58 → ILM 23:59AA 3897 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	90%	78%
American Details →	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:45AA 2407	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	6h 36m	87%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	5h 05m	73%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON