Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1824 DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	13%	4%	0.4%	84%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	MIA 10:00	13%	4%	0.5%	81%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	15%	6%	0.5%	82%
AA 1003 American	DFW 07:09	MIA 11:07	16%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 868 American	DFW 09:08	MIA 13:06	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2762 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	MIA 13:29	23%	5%	1.3%	70%
AA 656 American	DFW 10:30	MIA 14:28	25%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 899 American Flight history →	DFW 10:32	MIA 14:30	27%	6%	1.3%	55%
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:26	MIA 16:24	33%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	MIA 16:43	35%	6%	1.3%	51%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	37%	9%	1.3%	56%
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:10	MIA 00:07	37%	11%	1.6%	56%
AA 3083 American Flight history →	DFW 15:39	MIA 19:40	39%	9%	1.3%	46%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	39%	10%	1.3%	56%
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 18:41	MIA 22:39	39%	10%	1.3%	63%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:02	MIA 22:09	41%	16%	0.9%	70%worse than usual
AA 1287 American	DFW 16:04	MIA 20:03	41%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1364 American	DFW 14:34	MIA 18:32	41%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1824 American Flight history →	DFW 19:12	MIA 22:59	42%	10%	1.0%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON