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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3801 DFW 07:23 → SGF 08:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 5004 DFW 17:53 → SGF 19:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 07:23 SGF 08:51 8% 2% 0.7% 87%
AA 4331 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 07:29 SGF 09:05 8% 1% 0.7% 93%
AA 3794 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 10:46 SGF 12:16 9% 2% 0.7% 87%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 11:09 SGF 12:43 9% 2% 0.7% 90%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 12:13 SGF 13:41 9% 2% 0.7% 86%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 14:36 SGF 16:09 11% 3% 0.7% 85%
AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history → DFW 08:37 SGF 10:12 12% 4% 1.2% 87%
AA 4092 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 20:23 SGF 21:54 13% 4% 0.7% 82%
AA 3797 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 17:36 SGF 19:07 13% 5% 0.7% 66%
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 19:01 SGF 20:31 14% 5% 0.7% 70%
AA 3665 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 22:11 SGF 23:34 16% 3% 0.7% 78%
OO 5004 SkyWest DFW 17:53 SGF 19:20 16% 6% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON