Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1291 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1291 DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2378 DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1291 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:45	SLC 09:31	14%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SLC 14:20	16%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	17%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2812 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:12	SLC 20:00	20%	5%	0.7%	55%
DL 1539 Delta	DFW 18:10	SLC 19:54	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1878 American	DFW 08:41	SLC 10:36	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2607 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	SLC 10:26	23%	5%	1.8%	83%
F9 3277 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:14	SLC 18:08	25%	10%	0.8%	84%
AA 1871 American	DFW 11:07	SLC 13:02	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	DFW 14:14	SLC 16:11	33%	9%	1.2%	62%
AA 2594 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	SLC 15:52	34%	9%	1.3%	47%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	SLC 13:10	35%	9%	1.3%	61%
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	37%	10%	1.2%	50%
AA 2993 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SLC 22:59	37%	12%	1.2%	47%
AA 2378 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	SLC 00:36	39%	11%	1.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON