Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1686 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1686 DFW 06:52 → SNA 08:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 806 DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 06:52	SNA 08:03	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 2680 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SNA 09:33	15%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 2644 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SNA 08:18	16%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:47	SNA 11:13	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:37	SNA 10:05	18%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 2672 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	SNA 10:48	19%	5%	1.3%	83%
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:23	SNA 12:49	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2684 American Flight history →	DFW 12:23	SNA 13:31	22%	6%	1.0%	80%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:32	SNA 15:56	22%	6%	1.2%	80%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	SNA 13:30	23%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	23%	5%	1.2%	74%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:16	SNA 17:29	25%	6%	1.2%	80%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:29	SNA 09:50	26%	7%	1.3%	68%
AA 2688 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	SNA 15:36	26%	7%	1.2%	61%
AA 2668 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:37	26%	6%	1.2%	71%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	28%	6%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON