Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3426 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3426 DFW 07:10 → TUL 08:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1514 DFW 20:04 → TUL 21:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TUL 08:22	11%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:53	TUL 08:09	11%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:06	TUL 12:18	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:51	TUL 18:03	19%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:26	TUL 09:41	22%	7%	1.2%	80%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	TUL 10:02	24%	6%	1.8%	85%
AA 5420 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 13:57	TUL 15:16	26%	9%	0.8%	66%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 11:06	TUL 12:23	30%	9%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
AA 2056 American	DFW 14:13	TUL 15:29	30%	14%	1.6%	no record
AA 2889 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TUL 19:46	33%	13%	1.2%	39%
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 22:38	TUL 23:47	33%	10%	1.2%	62%
AA 1514 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	TUL 21:10	35%	13%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON