Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:44 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: MQ 3668 at 16:36 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–40%.

Safest bet today MQ 3668 DFW 16:36 → VPS 18:35 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1201 DFW 19:03 → VPS 20:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3668 Envoy	DFW 16:36	VPS 18:35	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2673 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	VPS 18:38	38%	10%	0.7%	49%
AA 1201 American Flight history →	DFW 19:03	VPS 20:58	40%	11%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON