Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:19 pm at Des Moines); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: 9E 5144 at 17:33, 23%.

Nonstops today


9E 5144 Endeavor	DSM 17:33	DTW 20:23	23%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 17:51 → MSP 19:06DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 21:02 → DTW 23:48DL 8805	4h 57m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DSM 18:50 → ORD 20:30UA 6050 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	4h 04m	64%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON