tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:02 pm at Des Moines); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 15:10, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 32% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:10 → ORD 16:52UA 312 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827 7h 16m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:51 → MSP 19:06DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 52m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 4h 49m 82% 68%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989 2h 40m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 6h 49m 93% 67%
SouthwestDetails → DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755 1h 45m Chicago MDW 19:45 → LGA 23:00WN 4120 5h 20m 100% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:26 → ORD 17:05UA 1989 51m Chicago ORD 17:56 → LGA 21:05UA 2458 4h 39m 63% 36%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:02 → DFW 18:03AA 1664 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:00 → LGA 23:24AA 1375 6h 22m 41% 24%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:06 → IAH 17:41UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 18:29 → LGA 22:52UA 2682 6h 46m 32% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON